Let’s compare 538.com state polling averages for a number of key states on October 28th (the day of the Comey press conference) and November 7th (just prior to the election) to test the hypothesis that the Comey press conference threw the election to Trump.
| FL | +2.3% | +0.6% | -1.7% | -1.3% | 29 |
| MI | +6.5% | +4.2% | -2.3% | -0.3% | 16 |
| PA | +6.1% | +3.7% | -2.4% | -1.2% | 20 |
| WI | +6.3% | +5.3% | -1.0% | -1.0% | 10 |
It appears that Comey cost us at least FL, MI, and PA (65 Electoral votes) and WI would have been a tossup.
We would be looking at a 307-231 Clinton victory rather than a 306-232 Trump win.
While there may have been other factors in play, this basic analysis supports the hypothesis that James Comey’s decision to politicize the FBI 11 days before the election flipped the final result of the election from Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump.